The Impact of Aggregation Method Choice in GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Techniques for Site Selection of Green Hydrogen Production: A Brazilian Case Study

Abstract

Renewable hydrogen is key to Brazil’s transition to a carbon-neutral energy system, utilizing its abundant solar and wind resources for large-scale decarbonization. Despite its vast renewable potential, high costs and infrastructure gaps keep deployment limited to early-stage pilot projects. This study presents a grid-level, GIS-integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework that evaluates hydrogen suitability in Brazil. The model integrates renewable resources, topography, land-use constraints, infrastructure, and industrial demand. A comprehensive comparative assessment of aggregation techniques is conducted through mathematical validation and benchmarking against existing projects. Results show that understanding each method enables decision-makers to select the approach that best aligns with specific planning objectives, considering input characteristics and regional context. The Northeast and Central-West are consistently identified as the most suitable regions, aligning with existing initiatives and confirming the framework's practical relevance. The study offers a flexible methodology combining quantitative rigor with expert judgment to guide national hydrogen roadmaps and large-scale deployment.

Renewable hydrogen is key to Brazil’s transition to a carbon-neutral energy system, utilizing its abundant solar and wind resources for large-scale decarbonization. Despite its vast renewable potential, high costs and infrastructure gaps keep deployment limited to early-stage pilot projects. This study presents a grid-level, GIS-integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework that evaluates hydrogen suitability in Brazil. The model integrates renewable resources, topography, land-use constraints, infrastructure, and industrial demand. A comprehensive comparative assessment of aggregation techniques is conducted through mathematical validation and benchmarking against existing projects. Results show that understanding each method enables decision-makers to select the approach that best aligns with specific planning objectives, considering input characteristics and regional context. The Northeast and Central-West are consistently identified as the most suitable regions, aligning with existing initiatives and confirming the framework's practical relevance. The study offers a flexible methodology combining quantitative rigor with expert judgment to guide national hydrogen roadmaps and large-scale deployment.