Improving the representation of transport demands in TIMES models: a case of study for the Spanish 2030 transport decarbonization goals

Abstract

The transport sector is regarded as key for the energy transition, given the share it holds in the total energy consumption and emissions count, more than a fourth of the Spanish total. Its integration within energy models allows for the analysis of ties between sectors and for the coordination of decarbonization plans. Transport sector features can be introduced by different means, and very often, the higher level of integration leads to a more abridged representation of its heterogeneous dynamics. The two aspects these models often overlook are: the behavioral dimension of the users, and the spatial characteristics of the system. Among the mechanisms that can curtail transport emissions, modal shift and other changes in human behavior have been proven as the most cost-efficient and immediate ones.For that reason, modelling the rationale behind the choices of passengers as well as the system’s differences between territories are two important features for the design and assessment of policies. This study incorporates greater detail in these two dimensions into the Spanish TIMES model, allowing for modal shift within transport demands across the territory. By doing so, this study analyzes the impact of different transport policies on reducing emissions by fostering the adoption of electric vehicles, the shift toward cleaner modes, restricting traffic or acting on new vehicles registrations. Different scenarios are studied to analyze how they contribute to reach the emissions limits stablished on national mitigation plans working towards the 1.5ºC goal.