Integrating mobility and power system expansion models to assess the role of fuel cell vehicles in the Iberia energy transition

Abstract

CEVESA is a market model for the long-term planning and operation of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). It is based on interconnected price-zones with implicit capacity allocation for market coupling and market splitting computation, but without grid constraints. It models operation and investments in utility-scale and behind-the-meter generation, with investments computed by technology [3]. A firmness capacity constraint drives investments and provides price signals for capacity remuneration. It can be run as a system costs minimization or as a conjectural variations equilibrium problem, and implements a chronological joint energy and secondary reserve dispatch [1], [2]. Hydro, thermal and pump-storage units, batteries, and hydrogen electrolyzers are represented in CEVESA, and wind and solar technologies are characterized by their generation profiles. Hydro units are dispatched with a simplified approach based on historical weekly energy and reserve commitments. Demand is inelastic but with behind-the-meter generation investments based on the minimization of the energy costs of customers groups, which provides long-term elasticity. CEVESA is also linked to the transport sector, with a representation of vehicles fleets to assess the impact on the market and generation capacity of a massive electric vehicle (EV) penetration with different charging strategies [4], [7], or with a daily demand of hydrogen from electrolysis for powering fuel cell vehicles (FCEV) [5], [6]. The objectives of this work were the improvement of CEVESA hydrogen and mobility models, and the use of CEVESA to estimate potential expansion paths for the combustion vehicles (CV), EV and FCEV mobility alternatives considering the total system costs and the European Union decarbonization strategy. Two new models are developed and integrated into CEVESA: a model based on [8] to simulate the hydrogen generation and storage network, and a model for the FCEV hydrogen refueling process. Both models interact with the power system model through the energy and generation capacity needs and the electricity price. The integrated model complements the work in [7] for assessing evolution paths of CV and EV. Data from [9], [10] and [11] were used, as well as the investment costs of additional infrastructures (vehicles purchases, new refueling stations, etc.), and the operation, emissions, and maintenance costs for the different mobility alternatives. The alinement of the EU emissions targets with the current economic, technological and social reality of Spain and Portugal is also analyzed. Results validate the model and allow to estimate potential evolution paths of the different mobility alternatives for residential drivers according to the input scenarios.