Expansion Governance of the Integrated North Seas Offshore Grid

Abstract

La expansión de la transmisión y generación eléctrica en los mares del norte de Europa se está acelerando rápidamente. Esto se debe a varios factores, entre ellos la descarbonización y la reforma del sistema eléctrico europeo, y las innovaciones en la energía eólica marina y en la transmisión DC. Hasta el momento, esta red marítima del Mar del Norte de Europa está compuesta por líneas de transmisión convencionales, que realizan las funciones de interconexión de los sistemas eléctricos en tierra y de conexión del parque eólico por separado. Una red offshore integrada es un concepto innovador donde algunas de las líneas de transmisión realizan las funciones de interconexión y conexión simultáneamente. Estudios utilizando modelos de optimización indican que una red integrada proporciona beneficios socio-económicos, técnicos y ambientales. La red offshore se caracteriza por su multiplicidad de actores, que trabajan en varios niveles, desde el europeo hasta el subnacional. Esto hace que la gobernanza sea la única forma de gestionar la expansión de la red hacia una mayor integración. La gobernanza de la expansión de la red offshore se enfrenta a varias barreras interrelacionadas en muchos bloques de la gobernanza, desde metagobernanza hasta planificación y operación. Esta investigación aplica un enfoque exploratorio a la gobernanza de la expansión para comprender cómo se puede gestionar la red offshore para lograr una mayor integración. Este enfoque combina el modelado de los sistemas eléctricos y el análisis regulatorio de la gestión de las inversiones en activos offshore, que son fundamentales para desarrollar una red integrada. El Offshore Grid Exploratory Model (OGEM) introduce restricciones integradas de gobernanza, que representan la complejidad coordinación de los intereses de los países del Mar del Norte y de planificación. El impacto de las restricciones permite recomendar principios de diseño para los marcos de gobernanza para las inversiones offshore. Paralelamente, se el Clean Energy Package por su impacto en la gobernanza de la expansión offshore. Se identifican cinco desafíos, que no son resolvidos por la reforma de la Unión de la Energía. Finalmente, se hacen recomendaciones de política en los bloques de gobernanza de metagobernanza, planificación, financiamiento y precificación. Estos incluyen la planificación proactiva y el desarrollo de la cartera de proyectos a nivel regional, y la consideración de la interacción de líneas HVDC multiterminal con proyectos integrados. Esas recomendaciones constituyen cambios específicos en la gobernanza europea de la expansión que mejorarían significativamente el campo de juego para una red integrada offshore.

The expansion of offshore power transmission and generation in the North Seas of Europe is accelerating rapidly due to several drivers. So far, this European North Seas offshore grid is composed of conventional transmission lines, which perform the interconnection of onshore power systems and the wind farm connection functions separately. An integrated offshore grid is an innovative concept where some of the transmission lines perform simultaneously both the interconnection and connection functions. Earlier research demonstrated that such an integrated offshore grid can provide socio-economical, technical and environmental benefits. Governance is the only adequate decision-making mode for the integrated offshore grid. Governance combines hierarchies, markets and networks to guide decision-making in a networked multi-level, multi-actor system. Previous studies have identified important governance barriers for the development of an integrated offshore grid. This research applies an exploratory approach to expansion governance to understand how the offshore grid can be managed towards more integration in the presence of these barriers. This approach combines energy systems modeling and regulatory analysis to focus on the management of investments in offshore assets, which are central to developing an integrated grid. The Offshore Grid Exploratory Model (OGEM) was developed in this thesis to endogenously represent integrated governance barriers: the complexity of planning integrated lines and the interests of individual North Seas countries. OGEM confirms that an integrated offshore grid is beneficial to Europe. However, these benefits are highly dependent on the e Highway2050 scenarios used, and asymmetrically distributed between countries and actor groups. Governance barriers (represented as model constraints) lead to a modest reduction in benefits, and do not change the distribution asymmetry. The impact of the barriers is more pronounced regarding investment changes in transmission technologies and integrated lines. They increase path dependence and hinder the deployment of multiterminal HVDC lines. Also, the location and potential of offshore wind interacts with investments in offshore transmission, both of which can change radically in the presence of governance barriers. The impact of these barriers on the offshore expansion pathways allows to recommend design principles for governance frameworks of offshore investments. These comprise the need for: a comprehensive expansion candidate portfolio including both non-integrated multiterminal HVDC and integrated projects; to consider inter-temporal relations in expansion planning; and to consider different rates of innovation for transmission technologies. In parallel, five challenges are identified for the European regional governance of offshore expansions. The first two deal with the interaction of the governance structure of the European and national levels with the regional one. Then, the third challenge deals with the participation of the United Kingdom and Norway in the European expansion governance. The planning challenge indicates that the regional planning of the offshore grid is dependent on national development plans. And the pricing and financing challenge indicates that cost allocation for Projects of Common Interest rigidly precedes the application for financing. Importantly, these challenges are largely unaddressed by the Energy Union reform. The thesis concludes with a number of policy recommendations. They concern meta-governance and the need for capacity building at the regional level. Then, multiple recommendations cover planning. Beyond following the design principles above, the planning challenge needs to be solved. Also, planning models and data should move towards open-modeling approaches which would facilitate the consideration of a broader candidate portfolio. Regarding financing and pricing, the regulation should foster more anticipatory investments than the current practice, and the Projects of Common Interest cost allocation and funding challenge should be solved.