Análisis económico-financiero del sistema eléctrico español : búsqueda de soluciones y visibilidad de cada una de ellas

Abstract

An economic and financial analysis of the different power generation technologies allows to get an overview of the Spanish electricity sector situation. In this project an analysis of the electricity sector was made to try to know which profitability can be expected when investing in each generation technology. Moreover, with these data, the aim of the project is to propose certain measures that may be useful to improve the situation of the electricity sector in Spain. To achieve the stated objective it is important to immerge yourself in the electricity sector throughout its history to know the ups and downs of the sector, their causes, consequences and solutions. Special importance is given to the study of the last 20 years, in which it can be seen which actions led the spanish electricity system to the tariff deficit. This study of the last 20 years of the spanish electricity system is the link between the historical chapter and the second chapter, the tariff deficit. This section defines the tariff deficit and shows its evolution throughout the 21st century. In addition, the different parts of the deficit are defined as well. The calculation of the deficit will be taken with respect to the data of the Comisión Nacional del Mercado y las Competencias. It is fundamental to know the importance of this chapter in the whole project since the calculation of the deficit with aspects that affect more or less, is the starting point to think about the solutions in the fourth chapter. However, before the solutions, the economic and financial analysis of generation technologies takes place. First of all, the revenues and costs of each technology generation for 1 MW of installed capacity are calculated. For the calculation of such incomes, in particular the market incomes, a Matlab program was made to export the data from the pool market in Spain in the ESIOS section of the web portal Red Electrica de España. These pool prices are taken every hour of the year, being multiplied by the energy sold in that time. There are two types of costs in the electricity generation sector: the investment cost and exploitation cost. To apply these costs to the different technologies, they are taken from data web portals with comparations of studies, as it is the case of openei.org (Open Energy Information), and also from reports from CNMC and the Plan de Energías Renovables 2011-2020 from the Spanish Government. With incomes and costs, followed by the corresponding taxes, a free cash flow of a length of 25 years is made to find the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of each technology, which measures the profitability of each generation. With these cash flows it is possible to determine which technologies are more profitable to invest in the future. Finally, after making the historical analysis, the tariff deficit chapter and the different generation technologies analysis, suggestions are made to prevent the deficit of the Spanish electricity sector. Issues such as premiums for photovoltaic technology, support for national coal, capacity payments, the interrumpibility management or taxes are discussed in the fourth chapter to make the spanish electricity system more stable.