Hybridization of CEVESA MIBEL market model based on market outcomes

Abstract

Fundamental electricity market models tend to underestimate the real market prices because they do not properly represent the real variable production cost of the generation units, nor the strategic markup that generation companies add to their costs to price the offered energy. This markup can increase bid prices above the marginal cost of the generation units, which may leave bids out of the market, decreasing the total cleared production, but increasing the final market price. This paper proposes a simple procedure, based on the real market outcomes, to estimate these markups and improve CEVESA MIBEL market model by reducing the gap between the simulated and the real market prices.