Framework for Climate-Resilient Low-Carbon Transport: Application to Spain

Abstract

Transport decarbonisation, especially through electrification, increases the interdependence with the wider energy system, thereby amplifying climate vulnerability. We propose a framework that represents the interactions of energy and transport in an optimization model (openMASTER) and applies robust optimization to design alternative investment strategies. This evaluates resilience through: demand-fulfillment ratio (DFR), total system cost, and GHG emissions. In a case study for Spain, increasing the robustness of the energy-transport system substantially reduces disruption-driven unmet demand and closes the cost gap, leading to a stable system cost while keeping emissions unchanged.