Keywords
MII-E (H62-electrotecnica), España, generación, mix, eléctrico, CO2, renovables, simulación, Spain, generation, mix, electric, CO2, renewables, simulation
Expansión de la red de transporte en España a largo plazo
Abstract
a motivación de este Trabajo de Fin de Máster es analizar el impacto de ciertos factores sobre la operación del sistema peninsular español en 2040. Estos factores son los siguientes: el precio de las emisiones de CO2, el coste de los combustibles de los generadores térmicos y la potencia instalada tanto térmica como renovable.
Para lograr este objetivo se ha realizado un análisis de sensibilidad del hueco térmico, usando el modelo TEPES desarrollado por el IIT. La realización de este análisis consta de varios pasos.
El primer paso ha sido ha sido construir un caso base, que se ha basado en los datos de 2017. La demanda y la generación de las energías renovables se ha obtenido de ESIOS. Los datos de los generadores térmicos han sido proporcionados por el IIT. Posteriormente se ha simulado el despacho anual de 2017 para validar los datos, usando el modelo TEPES.
Una vez validados los datos del caso base se han construido los casos de estudio. Dichos escenarios para 2040 se han basado en su mayoría en lo recogido en TYNDP (Ten-Year Network Development Plan) 2018, elaborado por ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators). En el informe de 2018 este plan se contemplan tres escenarios probables para 2040.
Los resultados de obtenidos en cada una de las simulaciones se han comparado entre ellos y se han obtenido conclusiones a partir de su análisis. Como conclusión general se puede decir que en todos los casos se presenta un gran aumento en la producción solar y según el caso más moderado en la producción eólica, cubriendo las energías renovables la mayor parte de la demanda. La producción de energía eléctrica a partir del carbón queda fuera del mapa y el gas natural es usado para paliar la intermitencia de las energías renovables.
The motivation of this Master's Thesis is to analyze the impact of certain factors on the operation of the Spanish peninsular electric system in 2040. These factors are the following: the price of CO2 emissions, the cost of fuels of thermal generators and Installed power, both thermal and renewable. In order to achieve this objective, a sensitivity analysis of the thermal generation was carried out using TEPES model. This model has been developed by the IIT. The realization of this analysis consists of several steps. The first step was to build a base case, which was based on data from 2017. The demand and generation of renewable energy has been obtained from ESIOS (System Operator Information System) and the CO2 emissions price from Sendeco2. The data of the thermal generators have been provided by the IIT. Once this information has been collected, the annual dispatch of 2017 has been simulated to validate the data, using TEPES model. Once the base case data has been validated, the case studies have been developed. These scenarios for 2040 have been based mainly on TYNDP (Ten-Year Network Development Plan) 2018. This plan has been made by ENTSO-E and contemplates three probable scenarios for 2040. The results obtained in each of the simulations have been compared between them to obtain conclusions from the analysis. As a general conclusion is that all cases present a large increase in solar power production and a more moderate in wind power production, depending on the case. Most of the demand is satisfied by renewable energies. Coal power production is no longer an economically viable option and natural gas is used to mitigate the intermittency of renewable energies.
The motivation of this Master's Thesis is to analyze the impact of certain factors on the operation of the Spanish peninsular electric system in 2040. These factors are the following: the price of CO2 emissions, the cost of fuels of thermal generators and Installed power, both thermal and renewable. In order to achieve this objective, a sensitivity analysis of the thermal generation was carried out using TEPES model. This model has been developed by the IIT. The realization of this analysis consists of several steps. The first step was to build a base case, which was based on data from 2017. The demand and generation of renewable energy has been obtained from ESIOS (System Operator Information System) and the CO2 emissions price from Sendeco2. The data of the thermal generators have been provided by the IIT. Once this information has been collected, the annual dispatch of 2017 has been simulated to validate the data, using TEPES model. Once the base case data has been validated, the case studies have been developed. These scenarios for 2040 have been based mainly on TYNDP (Ten-Year Network Development Plan) 2018. This plan has been made by ENTSO-E and contemplates three probable scenarios for 2040. The results obtained in each of the simulations have been compared between them to obtain conclusions from the analysis. As a general conclusion is that all cases present a large increase in solar power production and a more moderate in wind power production, depending on the case. Most of the demand is satisfied by renewable energies. Coal power production is no longer an economically viable option and natural gas is used to mitigate the intermittency of renewable energies.
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