Economic Consequences of Peak Oil for the Major Multinational Oil and Gas Companies

Abstract

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar los estados financieros de las cinco mayores compañías multinacionales de petróleo y gas durante el período 2011-2015 en el contexto del fenómeno del pico del petróleo. Se estudia cómo este fenómeno afecta a indicadores financieros clave, como la volatilidad de los beneficios y el apalancamiento, que influyen en las decisiones de directivos e inversores. Los resultados muestran que la disminución de la producción de petróleo afecta a las decisiones de inversión en nuevos pozos, al endeudamiento, al pago de dividendos, a la recompra de acciones y al beneficio neto. Asimismo, se analiza la evolución del precio del petróleo y su influencia sobre diversas partidas de los estados financieros. Aunque los precios fueron elevados entre 2011 y 2014, los beneficios descendieron debido al impacto del pico del petróleo. Finalmente, se observa un deterioro generalizado de la rentabilidad y de otros indicadores contables.

The main goal of this work is to analyze the financial statements of the five major multinational oil and gas companies, for the 2011-2015 period, in the framework of the peak oil phenomenon. Peak oil can affect key financial indicators (e.g., earnings volatility, leverage) that are used by managers, investors, and stockholders and which may potentially lead to changes in the decision making by management. Our results show that the decline in oil production affects the decisions about investment in new oil wells, leverage, dividends paid, shares purchased and net income involving the five major companies. In addition, we study the evolution of oil prices, and its influence in several items of the financial statements. Even though oil prices were at high levels during 2011-2014, however, the net income of the five companies actually declined due to the impact of peak oil. Finally, data for the last year studied (2015) indicate a general deterioration in return ratios and other accounting variables.