Assessing and improving resilience of future transport systems under climate stress: A case study for Spain

Abstract

The transportation sector is pivotal to global decarbonization but faces growing risks from climate change and energy system vulnerabilities. This paper presents a framework for designing, improving, and assessing the resilience of future transport systems, emphasizing the interdependencies between transportation and energy supply under climate stress. As the sector transitions to diversified energy pathways—such as electrification, hydrogen, and biofuels—resilience must address disruptions in both sectors.The study introduces a Design, Improve, and Assess methodology, supported by the open-source modeling tool openMASTER and robust optimization techniques. A case study for Spain illustrates the framework’s applicability: In the Design phase, a baseline decarbonized transport system is modeled, aligned with national goals. The Improve phase employs robust optimization to develop strategies resilient to disruptions like extreme weather, droughts, and grid failures. The Assess phase evaluates these strategies using novel resilience metrics, including Loss of Demand Expectation (LODE) and Loss of Demand Probability (LODP), alongside traditional metrics such as System Cost and System GHG Emissions.The case study identifies critical vulnerabilities, with transmission grid failures and renewable energy shortages being the most impactful disruptions. Robust strategies significantly enhance resilience, reducing transport-related emissions to near-zero under disruptions and cutting unmet demand by over 40%, albeit at a system cost 30% higher.The findings highlight the need for integrated resilience strategies, including grid reinforcement, renewable energy diversification, and adaptive infrastructure. Policymakers must balance resilience investments with cost-effectiveness to ensure sustainable and reliable transport systems. This study provides a scalable framework for achieving decarbonization goals while enhancing resilience, offering actionable insights for global application.The transportation sector is pivotal to global decarbonization but faces growing risks from climate change and energy system vulnerabilities. This paper presents a framework for designing, improving, and assessing the resilience of future transport systems, emphasizing the interdependencies between transportation and energy supply under climate stress. As the sector transitions to diversified energy pathways—such as electrification, hydrogen, and biofuels—resilience must address disruptions in both sectors.The study introduces a Design, Improve, and Assess methodology, supported by the open-source modeling tool openMASTER and robust optimization techniques. A case study for Spain illustrates the framework’s applicability: In the Design phase, a baseline decarbonized transport system is modeled, aligned with national goals. The Improve phase employs robust optimization to develop strategies resilient to disruptions like extreme weather, droughts, and grid failures. The Assess phase evaluates these strategies using novel resilience metrics, including Loss of Demand Expectation (LODE) and Loss of Demand Probability (LODP), alongside traditional metrics such as System Cost and System GHG Emissions.The case study identifies critical vulnerabilities, with transmission grid failures and renewable energy shortages being the most impactful disruptions. Robust strategies significantly enhance resilience, reducing transport-related emissions to near-zero under disruptions and cutting unmet demand by over 40%, albeit at a system cost 30% higher.The findings highlight the need for integrated resilience strategies, including grid reinforcement, renewable energy diversification, and adaptive infrastructure. Policymakers must balance resilience investments with cost-effectiveness to ensure sustainable and reliable transport systems. This study provides a scalable framework for achieving decarbonization goals while enhancing resilience, offering actionable insights for global application.