Hydrogen economy horizons: assessing investment risks and opportunities

Abstract

El estudio evalúa los riesgos y oportunidades de inversión en la economía del hidrógeno entre 2019 y 2022, abarcando 123 empresas cotizadas a nivel mundial. Utilizando un enfoque de media-varianza y el ratio de Sharpe, analiza cómo la localización geográfica y la posición dentro de la cadena de valor afectan el rendimiento financiero, mientras que la diversificación no muestra un impacto significativo. Se compara el efecto de la pandemia de COVID-19 con la crisis energética de 2022, concluyendo que esta última tuvo un impacto más negativo. Los portafolios óptimos basados en hidrógeno superan los índices globales y sostenibles, especialmente en periodos de crisis. El trabajo ofrece orientaciones para inversores y responsables de políticas, promoviendo inversiones estratégicas y marcos regulatorios estables que impulsen la transición hacia una economía del hidrógeno sostenible.

The global transition to a low-carbon economy positions hydrogen as fundamental for climate change mitigation and sustainable finance. However, the financial viability of hydrogen-related investments remains largely underexplored. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the risks and rewards of 123 publicly traded hydrogen-related companies globally from 2019 to 2022. Using a mean-variance approach, we characterize the evolution of hydrogen-related stock markets during their early phase. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of investment opportunities across the entire hydrogen value chain and with a global sample of firms, expanding beyond previous limited geographical or stage-specific analyses. Our findings indicate that value chain positioning and geographical location significantly influence financial performance, unlike diversification. We offer a novel comparative analysis of the distinct financial impacts of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis on hydrogen investments, revealing the latter’s greater negative effect. Our constructed optimal hydrogen portfolios consistently outperform global and sustainability benchmarks, particularly during turbulent periods, providing robust evidence for strategic investment. This research highlights the critical role of public and private investment, offering actionable insights for investors in portfolio construction and risk management and guiding policymakers in designing stable regulations to accelerate the hydrogen economy.