¿Revalorizaciones históricas?

Abstract

Enjuiciar lo cara o barata que está una bolsa por su evolución pasada puede ser muy engañoso. La revalorización de la bolsa americana desde 2010 es muy grande, pero no tanto si lo analizamos en lo que va de siglo, desde el 2000. El valor del S&P 500 y del Nasdaq se ha multiplicado por 2,4 y 2,5 desde entonces, y en paralelo el PIB norteamericano se ha multiplicado por 2,2 y el mundial por 2,8. El inversor en bolsa americana ha obtenido un retorno correcto, no espectacular: del 6,3% anualizado en el S&P 500 (4,3% de revalorización del índice +2% de dividendos) y del 5,5% en el Nasdaq.

Judging how expensive or cheap a stock market is by its past evolution can be very misleading. The revaluation of the American stock market since 2010 is very large, but not so much if we analyze it so far this century, since 2000. The value of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq has multiplied by 2.4 and 2.5 since then, and in parallel the North American GDP has multiplied by 2.2 and the world by 2.8. The investor in the American stock market has obtained a correct, not spectacular return: of 6.3% annualized in the S&P 500 (4.3% revaluation of the index +2% of dividends) and 5.5% in the Nasdaq.

Judging how expensive or cheap a stock market is by its past evolution can be very misleading. The revaluation of the American stock market since 2010 is very large, but not so much if we analyze it so far this century, since 2000. The value of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq has multiplied by 2.4 and 2.5 since then, and in parallel the North American GDP has multiplied by 2.2 and the world by 2.8. The investor in the American stock market has obtained a correct, not spectacular return: of 6.3% annualized in the S&P 500 (4.3% revaluation of the index +2% of dividends) and 5.5% in the Nasdaq.

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