Learning from the past: Revisiting expert judgment related to the lifesaving potential of airbags

Abstract

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In 1984 the official U.S. government estímate, based largely on experimental data and expert judgment, suggested that 4,500 to 9,000 lives could be saved annually iffull frontal air bags were installed in all passenger vehicles. In contrast, the current official estímate of lifesaving potential, based on extensive real-world crash experience, has now been reduced to approxirnately 3,000 lives saved annually. This article pinpoints and discusses the sources of errors made in the early predictions of Iifesaving potential for air bags.