Risk analysis for an electrical power portfolio generation assets

Abstract

This project aims at finding the margin and risk of the Spanish utility Endesa in different scenarios for the year 2025. First, the scenarios have been created according to the possible evolution that may experience the Spanish electric power system. The scenarios vary considering the possible evolution of the generation mix and the demand. Then, the model used to perform the analysis, ARIES, has been updated. For that, it is necessary to fed the model with historical and forward series of the different commodities intervening in the model, as well as other data like the demand growth, the capacity installed of the different technologies etc. Part of this data has been obtained from the Risk Management department of Endesa. Since this data is confidential, the results of the simulations have been described in a qualitative manner. Finally, the model is executed and the obtained results are analyzed in other to establish which are the most advantageous scenarios for the company and what measures can undertake to limit the adverse effects.