Evolution of debris cones with TLS (2009–2024) and development of predictive techniques with functional data

Abstract

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This study aims to analyse the dynamic of two debris cones (Cone A and Cone B) in Picos de Europa in the northern Iberian Peninsula. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technology was used for their continuous assessment every August for 16 years (2009–2024). The statistical predictive value of position (Z) in 2024 was calculated for the same planimetric position (X, Y) throughout all the profiles of maximum slopes of the digital elevation model (DEM) of 2009. To do so, we interpolated the actual field data from 2009 to 2023 and used them to form a sample of curves, which are interpreted as the realization of a functional random variable that can be predicted using statistical techniques. The predictive curve obtained was compared with the 2024 field data. The results of both coordinates (Z), the actual field data, and the statistical data are coherent within the margin of error of the data collection. The observations and calculations of the two debris cones were treated independently, but both showed the same behaviour. In this way, the present study demonstrates the goodness of some statistical techniques for the functional analysis of data that allow predicting displacement curves by adjusting the model to the sample of movement curves from previous years.