A contingency analysis for managing the risk of water spillage or shortage in a mid-term hydro scheduling model

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology to determine secure operation policies of hydro systems through a contingency scenario analysis in order to prevent the risk of spillage or shortage due to inflows different to those of the nominal case. The methodology is applied within a general mid-term hydro scheduling model used to find optimal and feasible schedules of cascaded reservoirs and hydro plants. The operation criterion is to maximize the expected income of a hydro generator but minimizing the possible damaging effects of the contingency scenarios considered. In order to obtain a set of realistic scenarios which considers the seasonal and spatial correlations of inflows, the contingency scenarios are created and chosen following a pattern and clustering analysis based on the statistical analysis of historical data. An example case is presented in order to illustrate the essential features of the proposed methodology.

This paper proposes a methodology to determine secure operation policies of hydro systems through a contingency scenario analysis in order to prevent the risk of spillage or shortage due to inflows different to those of the nominal case. The methodology is applied within a general mid-term hydro scheduling model used to find optimal and feasible schedules of cascaded reservoirs and hydro plants. The operation criterion is to maximize the expected income of a hydro generator but minimizing the possible damaging effects of the contingency scenarios considered. In order to obtain a set of realistic scenarios which considers the seasonal and spatial correlations of inflows, the contingency scenarios are created and chosen following a pattern and clustering analysis based on the statistical analysis of historical data. An example case is presented in order to illustrate the essential features of the proposed methodology.