The (Hopefully) Enlightening Blackout in Spain: Questions and Lessons for the Future

Abstract

The impact of the April 28th blackout in the Iberian Peninsula went well beyond its immediate economic effects. From the outset, different interest groups began to speculate (in their favor) not so much on the causes of the problem (not yet fully known), but on the conclusions to be drawn for the future, not only in Spain and Portugal, but globally: what should the expansion of the electricity system be like in order to make progress in the decarbonization of the economy while guaranteeing security in the short term?Spain's electricity system is a key reference for global energy players due to several unique features: limited interconnections, ambitious decarbonization targets (80 renewables by 2030), a top-ten global ranking in non conventional renewable penetration, government decision not to subsidize the life extension of the nuclear fleet beyond forty years, large installed capacity of combined cycle plants with utilization factors below 15, stagnant demand growth for more than a decade.On June 17, the Spanish government released a preliminary report on the potential causes of the blackout (Government of Spain, 2025). In short, it concludes that a chain of highly unlikely events occurred, and that Red Eléctrica (REE), energy producers (both conventional and renewable), large consumers, and distribution operators all (at least partially) failed to fully meet their responsibilities. [...]