From least-cost plans to implementable electrification. An iterative convergence procedure forElectrification planning, regulation, and finance

Abstract

Least cost electrification plans are necessary, but they are not sufficient to achieve universal access. The main challenge is not only where and when to extend service, but how to do so under affordability constraints, weak revenue bases, and limited financing capacity. This paper develops an iterative convergence procedure that links three interdependent decisions: the rollout of the techno-economic plan, the regulatory and business model, and the financing architecture. It introduces an information exchange matrix to define the minimum coordination required across these dimensions and institutions, with a convergence algorithm to identify whether emerging feasibility problems can be resolved within the existing plan or whether they force a return to the planning stage. Zambia based examples illustrate both dynamics. The result is a structured method to transform electrification plans into implementable and financeable programs.