Improved hybridization of CEVESA MIBEL market model based on real market data

Abstract

This paper presents a new hybridization approach to improve CEVESA, a multi-zonal hydro-thermal equilibrium model for the joint dispatch of energy and secondary reserve capacity for the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). Like similar fundamental models, CEVESA provides market prices that typically show an average systematic bias compared to real market prices. This is because these models do not always capture the true variable production costs of the generation units or the additional markups that generation companies may include in their pricing strategy. Based on real market outcomes, this paper proposes a new methodology built on a previous hybridization approach that estimated a constant monthly markup per thermal offering unit [1]. This new methodology is based on a functional estimation of the offering unit cost (or bidding price), using as input the initial CEVESA production costs based on the fuel and emissions commodities’ prices, correcting the power plants’ markup.