European Governments’ Fiscal Behaviour and Public Debt Holders: What Is the Financial Connection?
Resumen
. Concerns about fiscal sustainability and worsening balance sheet conditions of major banks triggered a
doom loop between banks and sovereigns during the 2010-2013 sovereign debt crisis. Despite closer
financial integration and additional institutional safeguards, the home bias, i.e. domestic bank holdings of
domestic sovereign debt, is still high in most EU countries. We examine the effects of home bias on fiscal
sustainability. In this paper, fiscal sustainability is understood in a broad sense of a government's ability to
manage its finances in a way that ensures the long-term viability of its economic and social programmes,
without compromising the stability of its financial system. We first extend two IMF database on sovereign
debt holdings to all EU Member States. We then apply panel smooth transition regression models on a fiscal
rule. We find that a high home bias does not reduce the reaction of governments to public debt, but only if
the financial system is sufficiently developed. A developed banking system allows sovereigns to raise more
public debt at acceptable conditions to support economic stabilisation. An increased presence of foreign
banks has a benign effect on sustainability by reducing governments’ debt bias, but state-owned banks
reduce it. We further test fiscal responses to public debt shocks with an interacted panel Vector Auto
Regression model. Even though governments respond to public debt under a high home bias, sovereigns
react only slowly and delay fiscal consolidations. Developing financial markets further through the
completion of the Banking and Capital Markets Unions in the EU could help countries in the trade-off
between economic stabilisation and debt sustainability, while bringing in more foreign banks might enforce
stronger fiscal discipline.
European Governments’ Fiscal Behaviour and Public Debt Holders: What Is the Financial Connection?
Palabras Clave
.: fiscal policy, government debt, home bias, financial development, banking, doom loop